COVID-19 Across Age Groups in Virginia
Melanie Vinton
September 30, 2022
COVID-19 appears to affect age groups differently. This analysis focuses on the data related to COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across 9 different age groups in the state of Virginia. We use data from the Virginia Department of Health. The source data was downloaded from the Virginia Department of Health website and is as of September 29, 2022.
Trends in the Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Across Age Groups
The following chart shows the trends over time in the number of cases for the 9 different age groups in Virginia. It appears that cases are more prevalent in the young and middle aged adults. Note an artifact of the dataset in late April caused a significant drop in cases that were then added back into the dataset a week later. This does not represent an actual drop or rise in cases, but is due to the data collection and recording process. Similarly, corrections are regularly made to the data as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are validated by authorities.
On November 23, 2021, Fairfax County made a major adjustment to the number of hospitalizations considered related to COVID-19, reducing the cumulative count up to that date by 206. This is equivalent to almost 15% fewer hospitalizations in 2021 than previously reported. As a result, the trend regardless of age group appears to drop below zero which does not reflect reality but is an artifact of this significant data correction.
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This chart just looks at the past 90 days. 
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A similar analysis of hospitalizations across age groups shows a significant difference in the distribution. In this case we see that hospitalization appears to be more prevalent in older adults.
Note the VDH regularly validates and corrects the data. In mid-June 2021 a major correction was made to the number of hospitalizations in Northwest Virginia. On November 23, 2021, Fairfax County made a major adjustment to the number of hospitalizations considered related to COVID-19, reducing the cumulative count up to that date by 206. This is equivalent to almost 15% fewer hospitalizations in 2021 than previously reported.
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Again, here’s the hospitalizations over just the past 3 months.
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When looking at the distribution of deaths, the results are even more stark.
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Again, here’s deaths over the past 3 months.
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Past 2 Weeks
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Focusing on just the past two weeks further illuminates the disparity between age groups in terms of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
This chart shows the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across the different age groups in the past 2 weeks in Virginia.
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This chart displays the percentages that each age group represents in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
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Hospitalization and Death Rates
The hospitalization rate is the total number of hospitalizations divided by the total number of cases for a given category. The table below is hospitalizations rates for the nine age groups in Virginia since the start of the pandemic. Note that the number of cases was probably under-counted early in the pandemic due to the lack of testing, so these rates are actually probably lower than indicated here.
| Age Group | Hospitalization Rate |
|---|---|
| 0-9 Years | 0.005 |
| 10-19 Years | 0.003 |
| 20-29 Years | 0.005 |
| 30-39 Years | 0.011 |
| 40-49 Years | 0.020 |
| 50-59 Years | 0.035 |
| 60-69 Years | 0.063 |
| 70-79 Years | 0.113 |
| 80+ Years | 0.168 |
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The death rate is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of cases for a given category. The table below is death rates for the nine age groups in Virginia since the start of the pandemic. Again, the number of cases was probably under-counted early in the pandemic due to the lack of testing, so these rates are actually probably lower than indicated here.
| Age Group | Death Rate |
|---|---|
| 0-9 Years | 0.000 |
| 10-19 Years | 0.000 |
| 20-29 Years | 0.000 |
| 30-39 Years | 0.001 |
| 40-49 Years | 0.003 |
| 50-59 Years | 0.008 |
| 60-69 Years | 0.023 |
| 70-79 Years | 0.057 |
| 80+ Years | 0.146 |
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Comparing COVID-19 in Age Groups with Population Distribution
Another way to analyze the impact of COVID-19 across age groups is to consider the distribution of the population across those age groups. This chart shows both the distribution of the population and the distribution of the total number of COVID-19 cases across the age groups. The two distribution seem fairly similar, except for the youngest age groups. The 20-29 age group seems to make up the difference in the fewer cases among those under the age of 20.
The population distribution estimates are from the Census Reporter.
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When the distribution of hospitalizations are compared with the population, the skew towards the older age groups is much more evident.
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Sadly, the proportion of COVID-19 related deaths in Virginia in the elderly age groups far exceeds the proportion of the population those age groups represent.
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Focusing in on Virginians young and old illuminates the imbalance in the impact of COVID-19 across age groups.
| Virginians Age 60+ | Virginians Under 20 | |
|---|---|---|
| Percent of the Population | 22 | 25 |
| Percent of the COVID-19 Cases | 17 | 21 |
| Percent of the COVID-19 Hospitalizations | 62 | 3 |
| Percent of the COVID-19 Deaths | 86 | 0 |
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